I actually think that would be a valuable exercise. Were they right about everything 20 years ago? Or just some things? When did they say AGI would arrive? Should that perhaps influence the way we interpret their assumption that AGI is right around the corner?
They were not right about everything and they - at least Yudkowsky - has not made specific predictions about "when AGI" will happen that I am aware of. But he did predict it is possible in our lifetimes, which I was very skeptical of. He did predict alignment would be hard - I was in the "why would we even hook it up to the internet?" crowd. He thought he should spend his time on that, and I wish he'd done more of that, or at least convinced others to do more of that.
The comment said they were not right about everything. I don’t have a list of the predictions or priors you had 20 years ago. I just have my list and I already mentioned them. If this is all new to you, you can’t really do the exercise.
Alignment means the AI shares the values its creators intended for it. It is not a specific set of values. He has some, sure. For example he wants human society and creative intelligence to survive.
> For example he wants human society and creative intelligence to survive.
They want transhumanism - humans evolved by merging with machines. If we die in the process, it does not matter as long as minority survives and "evolves" they see it as wanted result.
I am not OK with minor nor larger genocide, I dont mind at all if we dont evolve.
Also how many predictions did they make? Everyone always goes looking the economist who predicted the last recession, it's just so weird how it's usually a different person each time!
