When I speak to people outside of tech the opinions are more negative, in my experience. I've even had people ask my friends/family to ask me about AI - there is huge concern out there.
> Many of them read HN and are offended I put them this way .. I bet that [non-groupthink] world has a lower P(doom).
People are likely offended by your sweeping and totally unevidenced assertion that you are better qualified to both identify mistaken groupthink within the HN-verse and to speak on behalf of the 99.99% of the world who are not on HN.
Did I say that? Since they failed, they were obviously bad business. But they were a rational thing to attempt to do - taking on a massive loan to speculate on land and using a (potentially) high cashflow, quick to setup, easy to market business to offset the high initial interest rates. i.e. the same thing being discussed in this thread
FWIW “Gambit” without elaboration strongly invokes the “the bankrupcies were on purpose” to me, so, did you say it? Strictly no, but it was very suggestive.
AFAIK, Trump used investor money and rented his brand - he would have upside if the business succeeded, but had no downside for him - he was paid anyway.
As for the suckˆHˆHˆHˆHinvestors, they had a bad day.
Eh. I wanted to be provocative because I've heard a lot of educated but economically naive people assume 'highly leveraged hotel-casino project' is dumb a priori, even though it's (an example of a) a sensible and common business strategy available to the wealthy. I didn't mean to imply bankruptcy was intentional though.
As to whether Trump did this better or worse than others, I have no idea as I haven't studied it but would assume the latter given the outcome.
A certainty though - plenty of undeserving people you would consider contemptible have successfully played this hand many a time. Yet more reasons to tax land
A rational thing for a competent person to attempt. Given the theoretical structural advantages of the idea, the 6 failures are even more embarrassing than failing at something that was actually a bad idea.
Well it's not like it didn't work out very well for Trump. Idk if it's 4D Chess but a huge part of the expense that lead to bankruptcy was licencing of the Trump brand. Can't pay all the other vendors because we first had to pay to license the name. OK, bankruptcy.
It is a shame to think that people might be aware of Dirac only through reference to Feynman, whose greatest works extended Dirac's own original breakthroughs. He has been rightly likened instead to Einstein for the brilliance and creativity of his contributions. Dirac created much of the foundations, modern formalisms, and mathematical tools of (especially relativistic) QM and also wrote the best textbook on the subject.
To be effective requires power. Therefore, the most altruistic strategy is to acquire all the power. This argument has seemingly convinced a lot of people, or perhaps they just wanted power anyway and now have an excuse too.
Never been my experience of maths, which is one of the most accessible disciplines to have ever existed.
I also have a degree, but mostly taught myself the important undergrad-level concepts as a kid. I just went to the library and borrowed any of the hundreds of books written to clearly communicate maths to beginners or downloaded any of the free ebooks / lecture notes.
Name a single field of endeavor that is more open in 2026. Software certainly isn't one of them - the best stuff has always been gatekept.
Captures it perfectly. I notice it more in newer sessions too where it doesn't have a clear understanding yet and is making a lot more assumptions. I wonder if this could be an emergent RLHF strategy - by drawing attention to (seemingly obvious) assumptions or context being made (e.g. I'm only interested in tea not coffee) it increases the chance that a human will correct the rare incorrect assumption sooner. If you are scored on solving problems, with no weight given to human frustration levels, this is probably a good technique.
RSI scenario is not scientist-limited though. So, you'd better get cracking if you want to catch up before it's impossible. Will first need to raise some serious capital too...
I'm not convinced this is an alignment or technology problem.
If my boss vibe coded an app for the customer and then assigned me to get it working, it would be impossible to maintain. If he gave me enough AI tokens to vibe code the MVP myself and to my design, I wouldn't mind.
I think the same issue is at play here in maths. OpenAI owns the model and they can direct it as they please. They chose to spend lots of money getting a quick result, instead of developing mathematical infrastructure for the next generation of problems. The managers are in charge rather than the experts.
> Many of them read HN and are offended I put them this way .. I bet that [non-groupthink] world has a lower P(doom).
People are likely offended by your sweeping and totally unevidenced assertion that you are better qualified to both identify mistaken groupthink within the HN-verse and to speak on behalf of the 99.99% of the world who are not on HN.
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